Plan To Restart The Economy WILL Look Something Like This

What will restarting the economy after Coronavirus look like?


Well Israel has a well-thought-out 4 Phase Plan (pending approval) and I would imagine that the U.S. plan will look something very much like this:


– Phase I: Tech and Finance, some Import/Export industries, 50% of Public Sector, and Preschool


– Phase II: Commerce/Retail Stores, Elementary School (ages 6-10)


– Phase III: Cafes, Restaurants, and Hotels, and most of the rest of the Education system


– Phase IV: Leisure and Entertainment: Culture, Sports, Large Shopping Malls, and Flights

There are 4 additional key provisions to this plan:

 

– 2 Week Buffer between phases to review and evaluate success before moving forward with the next phase.

 

–  “People over 60 and at-risk populations will not resumenormal activity throughout the four phases.”

 

– Resuming these activities occurs with the exercise of continued caution (e.g. social distancing, testing, etc.)

 

– Expect 2nd outbreak in the Fall and therefore continue to build up healthcare capabilities in preparation for this

 

This sounds like an excellent plan as a basis to reopen and one that we can and should build upon. 😉

 

(Credit Photo: Andy Blumenthal and thank you to my sister for sharing this with me)

 

Wrapped In Bubble Wrap

So I thought this was an interesting risk management strategy…


One colleague joked with me that:

“Everyone should just wrap themselves in bubble wrap!”

Reminded me of that game where people put on big wearable inflatable bumpers and then smash into each other for fun.


The problem though is that sometimes we put on the bubble wrap, bulletproof vest, or seat belt, but then we get stupidly overconfident. 


We think we are protected, but nothing human in impenetrable. 


So the person with the seat belt and air bag drives too fast and off a cliff and still gets him/herself killed. 


Or the person with the bulletproof vest gets shot with a high caliber armor piercing shell or in the back of the head.


Like on many cars, where the mirror says, “objects in mirror are closer than they appear,” we need not over rely on safety, protective, and risk measures and still do stupid things.


One guy told me, he backed up into the wall in the garage, because he thought there was more room and that’s not how things looked in the mirror. 


Let’s face it, there is no bubble wrap that can fully protect us from life. 


Everyday we face risks out there, and we need to manage them with common sense or else… 😉


(Source Photo: Andy Blumenthal)

Hey, Pay Attention

Watch Your Step.jpeg

It’s funny, when the way forward is uneven, broken, or fraught with danger, and someone just puts out a sign (and orange cone) warning you to be careful. 


Sure, it’s the responsible thing to do–protect people from misstepping. 


But even with the largest, loudest warnings, there always seem to be some people who just go right ahead anyway and tempt fate–they step on that 2nd broken stair.


Maybe it doesn’t give way (this time for this person) or maybe it does.


But they are too busy, too much in a rush, or too cocky to pay heed or else they like to play the odds–hey, what are the odds that something will actually happen to “me”?


The more cautious, perhaps smarter folks look for another way–using their ingenuity to go over, under, or around the obstacle in their path–in this case stepping over the broken 2nd step. 


Other may yet be deterred altogether and just turn backwards, giving up on their trek or just stop in their tracks like a deer in the headlights frozen by indecision.


I’d suggest that it is well worth it to take the time to look around you, sense the environment, and make a sound judgement before giving up or stepping stupidly into the ditch, minefield, quicksand, or on the broken step. 


It’s much harder to get out of trouble than to avoid it to begin with. 


I joke with one of my colleagues that they always have time to do things a second time (always!), but because they are rushing, never enough time–or focus–to do it right the first one. 


Watch your step, because some of them of definitely broken. 😉


(Source Photo: Andy Blumenthal)

Snatched From The Jaws Of A LARGE Shark

Shark

So this was a funny photo we took in Ft. Lauderdale. 


Right in the jaws of a very large shark…


Must’ve been a little what it felt like to be Jonah swallowed up by the big whale.


“Hey let me outta here…please!”


This whole thing reminded me of something I heard from a colleague.


At one time, he had said cautioningly, “You better dip your toe in the water, because there may very well be sharks in there.”


In other words, watch out from some {unscrupulous and dangerous} people–they have their own motives, hidden agendas, sources of power, and they may be VERY intense on getting what they want, so be careful–don’t get in their way (at least not directly). 


Hey, can’t you almost see the large, strong jaws–snapping, snapping, snapping. 


And the very important lesson here is that if you dare dip more than your toe in the shark-infested water, rest assured that you can lose a lot more than a foot. 


(Source Photo: The Blumenthals)

Metro Wide Open

Metro Gate
I took this photo in the Washington, D.C. Metro today. 



What do you think it is?



Lots of electronics, wires, lights–and in front of it and holding the door open is a “caution” pylon. 



This is one of the faregates to get into the metro system for the Capital region. 



Now how “smart” is it to leave the door wide open to this contraption. 

Usually the basics of physical security is gates, guards, and guns–in this case, the gates part is broken. 



The Department of Homeland Security was provided another week of funding to work out the immigration mess pitting Congress against the President…



But even with DHS still up and running, security is looking a little too wide open again. 😉



(Source Photo: Andy Blumenthal)

Buyer Beware, Else Buyer Remorse

Wallet
Just a quick lesson I wanted to share from my grandfather.



He used to say (or so my dad used to tell me), “You open your eyes or you open your wallet!



Put another way is that “A fool and his money are soon parted.”



But I like the way my grandfather put it even better–easier to remember and no name calling involved! 😉



(Source Photo: Andy Blumenthal)

Guns And Roses

Guns And Roses

This was an interesting student portrayal showing decision on whether someone is a friend or foe–I like it!

On the face of it, is a computer screen “head” with pictures of a drone for surveillance and a fighter jet for carrying out battle.

In the right hand is a rose for the friend, and in the left hand is a gun for the foe.

On the bottom, it says “You Decide” with little pieces of hanging paper marked “Friend”or “Foe” and you pick one.

To me, the kid that designed this is pretty smart–smarter than a lot of adults today,

Why?

To many people, everything is black or white–for example, liberals may default to everyone as good and trustworthy until shown otherwise, while conservatives may take the alternate track where they assume people are bad and we should be cautious with them and be prepared to defend ourselves.

Neither is simply right or wrong–it’s just how we approach things–although for me, it’s definitely you have to earn trust, and still it’s important to verify!

The kid that made the friend or foe robot apparently realizes that we have to discriminate between those people that are friends and those that are enemies–and act accordingly.

Surveillance is a good thing and being ready to defend ourselves is a very good thing.

Sometimes, those that masquerade as friends are really foes, and those that challenge us may really be our best friends.

We must be very discriminating in determining who is who–and be ready with both rose and gun. 😉

(Source Photo: Andy Blumenthal)

>Kudos to the Bean Counters

>Innovation is powerful, and with power comes responsibility.

When we think creatively and “out of the box”, we break the mental bounds that constrain our ability to go beyond what we know today and build capabilities that were unimaginable just the day before.

Yet, innovation is not like creation. G-d creates something from nothing. Man builds on the ideas of those who came before us—this is incrementalism.

And doing so, we are able to go beyond our own individual human limitations.

Incrementalism is a force multiplier. It is like layering one new thought, one change, one innovation on top on another and another. With each incremental development, we as a society are able to go beyond those who came before us.

Of course, some innovations are more evolutionary and some more incredibly revolutionary, but for all there are influences that underpin their development and they are there even if we cannot readily see them.

In short though, we are constantly changing as a society and as individuals—for better or possibly, for worse.

In the introduction to the novel, The Prey, by Michael Crichton, the author talks about the how everything—“every living plant, insect, and animal species”–is constantly evolving and warns of the complexity, uncertainty, and possible dire consequences if we do not manage change responsibly.

““The notion that the world around us is continuously evolving is a platitude; we rarely grasp its full implications…The total system we call the biosphere is so complicated that we cannot know in advance the consequences of anything that we do.”

I think the point is that even if we can envision or test the consequences of innovation one, two, three or however many steps forward, we cannot know the limitless possible downstream effects of a change that we initiate.

Crichton states: Unfortunately, our species has demonstrated a striking lack of caution in the past. It is hard to imagine that we will behave differently in the future.”

We don’t have to look too far to see how we have irresponsibly used many innovations in our times, whether they be complex and risky investment instruments that have led to the current financial crisis, medical products that have had serious unintended side effects resulting in serious injury and fatalities, and of course our endless thirst for and usage of fossil fuels and the general disregard for our planet and the negative effects on our environment such as global warming and pollution to name just a couple.

Crichton warns that “sometime in the twenty-first century, our self-deluded recklessness will collide with our growing technological power.”

The warning is particularly apropos in light of the ever increasing rate of change enabled by and manifested in various technologies such as biotechnology, nanotechnology, nuclear technology and information technology.

With each new advance in our technological prowess come risks of these new tools getting away from us and causing harm. For example, nuclear technologies have provided weapons of mass destruction that we struggle to contain; biotechnology has stirred concerns in terms of cloning, mutations, and deadly pathogens; nanotechnology stirs fears of toxic microscopic organisms that can easily get into our bodies, and IT viruses and cyber warfare that threaten our world of bits and bytes as we have come to know and rely for just about every daily activity we are involved in.

The point is not for us to be scared into mental stasis and inaction, but to be cognizant of the potential for serious side effects of changes and to take appropriate safeguards to mitigate those.

Innovation is exciting but it can also be seriously scary. Therefore, we need to be brave and bold in our thinking and actions, but at the same time we need to be cautious and act responsibly.

What this means in real life is that when new ideas are introduced, we need to evaluate them carefully so that we understand the range of benefits and risks they pose.

While it is not very sexy to be the voice of caution, great leaders know how to encourage new thinking while reining in potentially dangerous consequences.