Deterrence Alone Is Not A Strategy

 

High Wire Act.jpeg

So there is a military doctrine that has been in place for decades. 


– MAD – Mutually Assured Destruction 


If you attack the USA with weapons of mass destruction, you’ll get an overwhelming responses that will totally destroy your country. 


This was what supposedly held the USSR at bay during the cold war. 


And even recently, President Trump threatened North Korea that they would be “totally destroyed” if they try anything on us. 


The problem is that the MAD doctrine of deterrence assumes incorrectly that you are always dealing with rational actors and not with madmen.


Let’s face it, their are plenty of crazies out there, and some of whom may be willing to go down in a “blaze of glory” as long as they stand up to the United States and die a heroes death for their radicalized or “subjected” people. 


Whether it’s Iran or North Korea or others–we may not know what we are really dealing with here until it’s too late. 


Life is not everything to these people–remember many a terrorist has died a martyrs death with the promise of 72 virgins in heaven awaiting them. 


To some, as Prime Minister Gold Meir stated:

“Peace will come when the Arabs will love their children more than they hate us!”


Hate by virtue of perceived injustice, required Jihad or “holy war,” brainwashing or threats and the desire for a “glorious death” standing up to the infidels or the “great Satan…any of all of these can contribute to ignoring the consequences. 


Israel has tried to deter horrible homicide bombers/and other mad terrorists from performing their evil misdeeds on the civilian population by for example, demolishing the terrorist homes as a potent consequence that they know going into it, yet many terrorists still wear the explosive vests and detonate anyway.


Similarly, North Korea despite the President’s threat that they “will be met with fire and fury like the world has never seen,” brushed it off and shot off more volleys of ICBMs and threatened to engulf Guam in fire. 


– The point is that deterrence alone is not a strategy!


If our enemies can hit us with a devastating attack–whether WMD, cyber, EMP, or quantum attack— that can inflict immeasurable harm on us–they may actually choose to take their best shot, rather than wait for us to hit them or continue to feel disrespected, subjected, inferior, and hopeless.


To someone on the radical fringes or the mental edge, maybe–just maybe–they will do the unthinkable and surprise us.


What good will our fire and fury counterstrike do us, when our cities are in ruin and our people dead and dying en masse. 


Revenge isn’t so sweet when your family, homeland, and virtually everything you know and held dear is gone.


The only real military strategy is to be able to defend ourselves and AVOID getting a homeland catastrophe!


We need massive investment and expertise in missile defense, bio defense, cyber defense, quantum computing, and expansive hardening of our critical infrastructure.


Unfortunately, as naysayers to the threats abound, we are no where near where we need to be in protecting the homeland.


If one person falls from the high wire and smashes their head, what good is it that the other person falls and suffers similarly or worse. 


The point is not to fall, not to get hurt, not to die, not to have our country and way of life destroyed.


Deterrence does not guarantee this security to the country–especially when dealing with no shortage of radicalized nuts out there. 


Only a genuine defense that can STOP and counter the threats BEFORE a devastating attack happens and hits us is a strategy worth pursuing …and THEN you can punch the other person squarely in their devil’s face!


Without an adequate defensive strategy, get ready, because every high flying act eventually falls to the ground and hits their head hard. 😉


(Source Photo: Andy Blumenthal)

Advertisements

We Broke The Weather

Weather.jpeg

So my friend who lives in FL and recently experienced the crazy hurricanes down there said something very interesting to me. 


This was during the series of numerous recent hurricanes in just a few weeks period of time, including Harvey, IRMA, and Maria that devastated Texas, Florida, and Puerto Rico.


He said to me:

“We broke the weather!”


And after decades of warning about the impact of global warming–maybe he is right.


This last September was the most active month for Atlantic hurricanes ever on record. 


Further, we are seeing simultaneously the deadliest wildfires raging in California in its history. 


This only 13 years after the deadliest Tsunami from the Indian Ocean in recorded times killing about a quarter million people!


And only 28 years after the deadliest Tornado occurred in Bangladesh in 1989 that killed 1,300 people.


All these as if the increasing threats of nukes and other weapons of mass destruction and cyberattack weren’t enough to keep you up at night.


As we get more sophisticated and technologically dependent, incredible manmade and natural disasters are threatening us superbig time. 


And over and over again, it is being reported that a well-placed EMP explosion over the United States would kill 90% of the population within a year–talk about a extinction level event!


As we experience temperatures15 degree above normal this fall, even the trees are behaving abnormally as the leaves are not changing to colors of yellows and oranges and reds and purples that we expect and enjoy. 


Nature is messed up by our abuse of the planet and nurture is messed up by megalomaniacs with the weapons to do us in. 


If we don’t correct the dangerous path we are on polluting our planet and over-relying on technology then soon we could be turning horrible colors even if the leaves just fall to the ground or turn to ash. 😉


(Source Photo: Andy Blumenthal)

Weather.jpeg

Reconquest of the Soviet Union

Soviet Union .jpeg

Okay, when I saw this map of the Soviet Union pre-1991 breakup, I got it!


Russia lost 14 Former Soviet Union (FSU) states after the fall of the Berlin Wall.

  1. Armenia
  2. Azerbaijan
  3. Belarus
  4. Estonia
  5. Georgia
  6. Kazakhstan
  7. Kyrgystan
  8. Latvia
  9. Lithuania
  10. Moldovia
  11. Tajikistan
  12. Turkenistan
  13. Ukraine
  14. Uzbekistan

Could you imagine the United States or the European Union losing something like that?


Think of California and Texas and more seceding and making their own independent states. 


What would that do to the power and capability of this country?


Hence, when Russia goes into FSUs like Georgia and Ukraine (in red)–does a land grab like with Crimea and Abkhazia and South Ossetia–and threatens others, in their Soviet minds, they are just reclaiming what is/was theres.


Now listen, I am not justifying their aggression and hostile actions, but I am realizing/recognizing how explosive a situation this may end up being–especially since Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania (in blue) changed sides and are now part of NATO!


Russia–even without the 14 FSUs–is the largest country in the world by territory with over 17 million square miles–that is almost the size of the United States and Canada or and China combined!


Russia may not have the economy of the United States but they are a formidable foe that we least not forget also has the largest nuclear weapons stockpile in the world. 


Russia has a history of creating a large world dominating union and their military forays into the FSUs, support of hostile regimes like Syria and in Iran, sizable war games in Belarus, continuing to militarize the Arctic, interfering in our election, stealing our secrets via Kaspersky Lab software is likely just a shadow of what is yet to come. 


So if you think North Korea and Iran are problems…  😉


(Source Map: here with attribution to Map Collection)

From North Korean ICBMs to the Las Vegas Mass Shooter

hamas-rally.jpeg

What do North Korean ICBMs and the Las Vegas mass shooter have in common?


They both target the masses for the maximum fatality count.


North Korea was shown targeting a nuclear attack on major U.S. cities–including San Diego, Austin, Washington DC, and the islands of Hawaii. 


The Las Vegas shooter last night targeted a concert crowded with fans to let loose his automatic rifle killing at least 59 and wounding 527 in the deadliest mass shooting in U.S. history.


How about the Boston Marathon bomber that killed three and wounded 260 at the crowded finish line?  


We are living in dangerous, dangerous times. 


And being in a crowd can seriously get you killed. 


Honestly, does it take a genius or a madman to target a large gathering to inflict great pain on the enemy?


Honestly, who hasn’t wondered why we don’t target the terrorists groups and rogue terror nation states–whether Hamas, Hezbollah, ISIS, Al-Qaeda or Axis of Evil Iran and North Korea–when their militants are violently rallying, burning the American flag, chanting death to the USA, and boldly and defiantly raising their assault rifles high into the air. 


Why do we prefer to go after onesies-twosies in a virtual never ending battle to try and stop the terrorists of the day before they hit our cities and people again, when instead we can take out the evil bunch in more or less one fell swoop and send a no nonsense deterrent message. 


Are we too moralistic to do it to them before they do it to us and we have hundreds of thousands or millions of dead?


I’m not suggesting hitting innocent civilians, but how about an armed, military parade with tanks and missiles or a bunch of crazed terrorists just building up their gumption to do their next dirty massacre against masses of innocent men, women, and children.


The bad guys aren’t asking any questions before they hit the World Trade Center or the Pentagon or London or Paris or Tokyo or Jerusalem with guns, knives, bombs, vehicular attacks or even attempted WMD–maybe we shouldn’t ask too many questions before we invoke “fire and fury” on their evil ranks and protect our own once and for all. 😉


(Source Photo: here with attribution to JTF News)

613 Everywhere

So many times, I have written about the holy mystical number of 613 (the number of commandments in the Torah) and variations/transpositions on these numbers (316, 163, etc.).



My wife and I continue to see 613 all the time and everywhere!



Prices, receipts, license plates, accounts balances, stock price changes, lottery winnings, bar codes, time of day, wait times, schedules, number of email, rows in a spreadsheet, road numbers, social media views, etc. etc. etc.



– I have questioned myself over and over whether I am seeing it because I am sensitized to it or simply even looking for it at this point. 



The answer is a definite no!



Here’s a recent example, of the change in the stock price for Teva Pharmaceuticals (above)–it’s exactly -.0613!



But this isn’t a one time event or a fluke.  



As we all know stock prices fluctuate every moment on the marketplace. Yet, when I check at completely different and random times, it is up or down by a variation of 613!



Other times, I’ll check multiple stocks… and they will simultaneously be moving or priced at variations again of 613–at the exact same moment, I repeat, different stocks priced at the exact same moment.  



Here’s another non-financial example:

I did a post a few weeks ago on the critical importance of emergency preparedness. 



Look at how many views it got on LinkedIn…exactly 163!



This happens everywhere and all the time!



Here’s a third example:

A license plate. 



Here’s a fourth example:

Can you see the code on the package…613!



A fifth example:

A tracking code on a shipment. 



A sixth example: 

A bar code on a bottle of Life Water.



A seventh example:

A label on some spinach!



An eighth example:

A construction site.



An ninth example:

A public solicitation for the Department of Energy.



A tenth example:

The winning pot for Powerball. 



Hey, I am not superstitious and I am not OCD–seriously. 



But this happens all the time.



I cannot help but think that G-d is sending us an important message.



From a personal level, my wife and I have both tried to take the messages seriously and to continue to improve our lives–albeit we know, we are far from perfect human beings. 



However, we also feel compelled to share this message more broadly.



There is a lot going on in the world, and could this mean something bigger and more consequential to a lot more people?



Please, please, please, G-d have mercy on your children…we are but flesh and blood…and we desire to do good. 



(Source Photos: Andy Blumenthal)

Always Be Prepared

Emergency Preparedness.jpeg

It was nice going to a local festival yesterday and seeing a table set up with brochures for the kids and families on Emergency Preparedness. 


Even when we’re having a good time, we need to have in mind the possibility that things can go very wrong.


These last couples of weeks with Hurricane Harvey and Irma, we saw again the destructive forces that Mother Nature can bring. 


And today being the 16th Anniversary since the terror attacks on 9/11 and the almost 3,000 murdered at the World Trade Center and the Pentagon, we are reminded of the necessity to always be ready for man-made/inflicted disasters as well. 


Now with Axis of Evil nations, North Korea and Iran, continuing to pose alarming threats to the West, the need for preparation and readiness to dangerous WMD–whether from an ICBM or a suitcase bomb–is ever present


Let’s just say until the final redemption when peace will reign on earth, we can never just rest securely on our laurels. 


Even on a sunny day, the clouds may be gathering to threaten us.  


So have a plan.  Be prepared.  You and your families lives across our beautiful and free nation depend on it. 😉


(Source Photo: Andy Blumenthal)

Baiting With North Korea and Taiwan

North Korean Crisis.jpeg

 

OMG, I can’t listen to this politically correct nonsense for the masses on North Korean anymore. 


Yes, North Korea is a nuclear threat and they are ramping up the ante. 


And we are still technically at war with the North Koreans. 


But all the in-the-box ideas for stopping the North Korean threat is wasting everyone’s time and efforts. 


Today in the Wall Street Journal, we had everything from telling China that we’ll recognize the Axis of evil North Korean regime and sign a peace treaty with them in return for limiting the North Korean missile program and having inspections (because those worked so well in the past or with Iran) or we put the “squeeze” on China by threatening to remove their 328,547 Chinese students from American universities. 


Listen, it’s time to face facts:


China will not give up support for North Korea against us, until we would agree to give up support for Taiwan against them. 


Is that really so hard to understand?


No China will not be sanctioned by us or threatened by us economically or militarily–they are a superpower in their own right!


And we cannot expect to ask or force China to stop supporting North Korea, just because we don’t like it–in fact, that is exactly the point. 


We don’t like it, and that’s what China wants in order to push us out of supporting an independent and democratic Taiwan.


So now we are at the root of the choice here for America.


Either America is willing to negotiate with China for real and in effect compromise our values for democracy and freedom in the world or we can deal with North Korea on our own. 


And dealing with North Korea on our own–without destroying much of South Korea and even Japan in the process–probably means just one (or two) big bangs. 😉


(Source Photo: Andy Blumenthal)