The Great COVID-19 Lie

We have been told that the first case of Coronavirus/COVID-19 death in the U.S. was in February 2020. 

First, we were told it was February 29 in Kirkland, Washington. 

Then that is was earlier on February 6 and 17 in California. 

But I and others who I have spoken to believe that the first cases of COVID-19 were with us many months earlier. 

Both I and my wife developed extreme coughing around the September/October timeframe. 

The coughing didn’t go away for months!

As is now being reported with COVID-19, it was like it reactivates again and again, 

I went to the MinuteClinic and was prescribed antibiotics. 

The cough lingered and got worse a second time. 

I think I went another time to Minute Clinic or to Urgent Care and got a stronger antibiotic. 

The cough lingered and got worse yet a third time. 

As I become weaker and more sick (with fever at some point(s)), I found myself waking up and barely able to even get out of bed. 

I forced myself back over to Urgent Care again. 

I was given the flu test and it was not the flu. 

 

And no one seemed to know what it was!

They told me that they were getting so many cases…I believe they said each location was seeing about 100 patients a day!

I was so weak I just laid on the doctors exam table half falling asleep and barely able to move to get up. 

I was given yet an even stronger antibiotic and I believe some steroid medication. 

After about 3-4 horrible months and almost near collapse, it finally started to get better. 

I don’t remember ever getting anything like this! 

I hadn’t traveled anywhere either. 

Lots of people seem to have had a similar experience. 

Was this COVID-19 or some precursor to it?

I/We may never know the truth. 

But these symptoms and sickness was not normal.

And the high number of cases I was hearing about was beyond anything I can remember. 

As we know everything about this COVID-19 is not normal as we can all attest to after weeks and months of global lockdown. 

The reason that you are hearing all the confusing and contradictory communications and crisis from the “experts” and in the media is because the professionals are confused!

And we are left to wonder: when will we find out the truth about what this is, when it started, what the real dangers to us are now and into the future, and whether there will really ever be a cure for it? 😉

(Credit Graphic: Andy Blumenthal)

Pathogen Deaths – Worst Is Yet To Come

So maybe I am the only one who doesn’t see how things are adding up.

But in the U.S. we have 4,000 dead from Coronavirus and 3/4 of the country (all the major population centers) are on lockdown. 

Yet, the projections are still for deaths in the U.S. to pile up between 100,000 to 240,000. 

How do you get from 4,000 to 240,000 with most people under lockdown?

The numbers of projected deaths were in the millions before the lockdown and social distancing, so yes the numbers are lower and better now. 

Still the escalating death toll is frightening in its magnitude of what is yet to come DESPITE the lockdown.

Moreover, the estimated death in the U.S. from the Flu was only 34,000 (2018-2019) and that’s with everybody round and about doing their business.

My question is what happens after the (first) peak when they send people back to work and school?

There are still going to be people sick and contagious out there and the whole cycle STARTS AGAIN until we get the vaccine. 

And even after the vaccine, it may become seasonal like the flu or mutate and become even more virulent. 

It seems like there is plenty of reason to be cautious and concerned about what is yet to happen from here.

Then again we may be considered fortunate this time and actually beat this Coronavirus, but then again what happens when the NEXT really bad natural or man-made pathogen gets out? 😉

Note: There are approximately 16 countries with deadly biological weapons programs. 

(Credit Photo: My wonderful so-in-law, Itzchak)

Simpsons Predicted Coronavirus

It’s incredible that the Simpsons’ creators predicted Coronavirus back in 1993!

I understand that the sign in the first photo (top left) was edited from Osaka Flu to Corona Virus.

But still incredibly…

The Chinese workers are seen coughing/sneezing into the box of goods being exported to us.

Simpson opens his new bought goodies.

And instead of the joy of shopping, he gets sick.

And the virus spreads and spreads. 

(Source photo: Dailymail and you can watch the Youtube video there as well)

>Speed versus Accuracy and Enterprise Architecture

>What’s more important speed or accuracy when it comes to developing and implementing a enterprise architecture?’

On one hand, if your target architecture and transition plans are inaccurate, then you are leading your organization down the wrong business and IT path. One the other hand, if your architecture is not timely, then you are serving up outdated plans and strategy to the organization to no avail.

The Wall Street Journal, 12 November 2008, has an interesting article on an innovative Google “Flu-Bug Tracker” that I think sheds some light on this issue.

Google has a free web service at www.google.org/flutrends that “uses computers to crunch millions of Internet searches people make for keywords that might be related to the flu—for instance ‘cough’ or ‘fever’. It displays the results on a map of the U.S. and shows a chart of changes in flu activity around the country.”

The Google Flu Trend data is meaningful because of strong correlation found between those searching flu related keywords and those actually coming down with the flu as reported by the Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) one to two weeks later.

“In any given year, between 5% and 20% of Americans catch the flu.”

By getting advance warning of flu trends out to CDC and the public, Google may help provide an early warning for outbreaks. “For epidemiologists, this is an exciting development, because early detection of a disease outbreak can reduce the number of people affected. If a new strain of influenza virus emerges under certain conditions, a pandemic could emerge and cause millions of deaths (as happened, for example, in 1918).” (http://www.google.org/about/flutrends/how.html)

So speed of information is crucial here to early warning—helping people and saving lives. However, the Google Flu Trend information, based on tracking keyword searches, is not as accurate as capturing actual cases of the flu confirmed by laboratory testing.

So like with enterprise architecture, you have a trade-off between speed and accuracy.

With the Flu Trends data, “what they lose in accuracy, the site may make up in speed…reducing that time is crucial for combating influenza, which can manifest itself one to three days after a person comes into contact with the virus.”

Ms. Finelli of the CDC stated: “If you get data that’s not very timely one or two weeks old, it’s possible that the outbreak has already peaked.”

So is there a lesson here for enterprise architects?

Speed and agility is crucial in the making valuable decisions for the organizations in the marketplace, as it is in helping people in their healthcare. Trying to get all or completely accurate information to do an enterprise architecture or strategic plan is like trying to get 100% confirmed cases of the flu—if you wait until you have complete and perfect information, it will be too late to respond effectively.

It’s sort of like the adage “analysis paralysis”—if you keep analyzing and mulling over the data never making a decision, you are essentially paralyzed into non-action.

So it is crucial to get good-enough data that allows you to extrapolate and make decisions that are timely and effective. Of course, you can always course correct as you get more and better information and you get a clearer picture. But don’t wait till everyone in the enterprise has a confirmed case of the proverbial flu to start taking reasonable action.