Ballistic Missile Attack A Sham

I think that the Iranian ballistic missile attack on the American bases in Iraq was basically a sham and done in such a way, thank G-d, as to inflict minimal damage and causalities.

• The Iranians needed to make a show that they were getting revenge on the United States to appease their radical terrorist base for the killing of arch terrorist, General Soleimani.
• President Trump had already threatened 52 Iranian sites if they retaliated.
• Iran choose a very limited response hitting 2 military bases in Iraq — 10 missiles striking one base, 1 missile striking another, and 4 missiles (26%) that failed!
• There were no American causalities!
• Iran immediately stated that the country had taken “and concluded proportionate measures” — they are not looking for further escalation!

The Iranians are smart not to provoke the U.S. any further.

They may just have dodged a VERY BIG hit on their military.

The matter of weapons of mass destruction in the hands of the Ayatollahs remains an outstanding issue that MUST BE resolved once and for all even as we hope and pray for peace and security to prevail for the long term. 😉

The DIVIDED States of America

Our nation is increasingly polarized with little to no tolerance of others wants, thinking, or actions. 

– First under Obama.

– Then with the election between Hillary and Trump.

– And now over Judge Kavanaugh.

The result has been some of the worst behaviors seen since the Civil War–with not only disrespect, restrictions on freedom of expression, but even threats and actual violence!

This nation is no longer the UNITED States, but much more like the DIVIDED States. 

And that just plays into our enemies hands and could lead us to eventually lose our very democracy to totalitarianism, dictatorship, and tyranny.  

So now may be a good time to review for yourself how many biases are driving your thought processes and behaviors and creating dangerous fundamentalists and extremists all around us instead of thoughtful dialogue, negotiation, and compromise. 

Here are 20 biases that may be affecting you more than you realize:

– Do you overestimate the importance of the information you have or feel good about (Anchoring,  Availability, and Choice-Supportive Biases)?

– Do you seek out and perceive information that simply validates your preconceptions (Information,

Confirmation, and Selective Perception Bias)? 

– Do you overemphasize information that is more recent or recognizable (Recency and Salience Biases)?

– Are you ignoring information that doesn’t “fit your script” (Ostrich Effect/Omission and Conservatism Bias)?

– Are you tied up in the groupthink of your peers (Bandwagon Effect)?

– Do you see patterns in random events or conspiracies that don’t exist (Clustering Illusion)?

– Are you overconfident in your thought process and conclusions (Overconfidence Bias)?

– Do you tend to overvalue the usefulness or success of something, but not recognize its limitations or failures (Pro-Innovation and Survivorship Bias)?

– Do you fail to take risks because you prefer certainty (Zero-Risk Bias)? 

– Does your thinking something will happen actually cause it to happen (Placebo Effect)? 

– Do you use the ends to justify the means (Outcome Bias)?

– Do you judge people by their race, class, gender, religion, sexual preferences, or national origin (Stereotyping)?

– Do you fail to recognize your own biases (Blind-Spot Bias)?

Perhaps if more people would open their minds to information and engage in genuine thinking and critical thinking, rather than a lot of fake news and hype, we would be a far better and stronger nation. 😉

(Source Graphic: Business Insider)

Another Day In The Middle East

It can be hard for a regular person to understand the course of events in the Middle East–I certainly don’t!

I recognize that I don’t know what I don’t know, but with all due respect, it would be great if we could all better understand where we are going there.

– On the 9/11, we were attacked by Al Qaeda hijackers, 15 of 19 of whom were Saudi Arabian, yet after 9/11, we didn’t go after Saudi Arabia, but instead overthrew Saddam Hussein in Iraq.

– However, early in the 1980’s Iran-Iraq War, we supported Iraq against Iran and permitted the sale of American arms to Hussein.

– By overthrowing Saddam, in effect we established a Shiite-lead Iraq, right next to a fundamentalist Shiite Iran with a history of conflict with America.

– In subsequent conflicts, it is not clear whether we are supporting the secularists or the fundamentalists:

a) In Syria, we have been supporting “moderate” Sunni’s (although often seen aligned to Al Qaeda) against Bashar al-Assad, and what is considered the “secular Ba’ath party.”

b) In Egypt, we withheld military and economic support after the overthrew of the Muslim Brotherhood, whose aims include establishing a state ruled by Sharia law, and an organization that is aligned with Hamas and Hezbollah, both listed as terrorist organizations.

– In Iran, in an attempt to move towards peaceful nuclear disarmament, we are relaxing sanctions on a country that former President George W. Bush, in his State of the Union, declared part of the Axis of Evil (2002), and with an agreement that is viewed as not better than having a 50-50 chance of success.

If you find this a lot to take in, you are not alone. 😉

All opinions my own.

(Source Photo: Andy Blumenthal)

Choosing Between Democracy and Freedom

This is a photo I took in the Metro in Washington D.C.

It is an advertisement for a cessation of hostilities in Syria where estimates are over 100,000 people killed in civil war, so far.

Now in Egypt, you have about 1,000 killed in the overthrow of the Muslim Brotherhood and violence continues there as well.

What is really confusing is that in both cases you have terrorists and extremists fighting more secular societies–yet, we do not unequivocally support the secularists in their battle again Jihadists.

At the same time, we went to war for a decade in Iraq and Afghanistan to fight a “war on terror” and to this day it continues with somewhat regular drone attacks.

While I understand that as a Democracy we need to support fair and free elections, does this mean we have to buttress up fundamentalists, extremists, and terrorists–just because they got voted in.

Sometimes, people don’t know or understand what they are voting for until its too late, which seems to be what happened in Egypt when the people elected the Muslim Brotherhood.

Similarly, the Nazi party in Germany in the 1930’s won many seats in the Reichstag, and we know the ten of millions murdered and the destruction that this led to.

Democracy, does not mean good always prevails, but when evil is rightfully elected what are we to do–simply support free elections or support good over evil?

Perhaps, the notion of good and evil is a little simplistic (especially when neither side may be very good), but the idea is the same, are we fighting for free elections or the better candidate in terms of overall freedom, human rights, and world peace.

Can we really afford to straddle the fence here? 😉

(Source Photo: Andy Blumenthal)