Challenging The Dunbar 150

Today, Facebook announced it’s new search tool called Graph Search for locating information on people, places, interests, photos, music, restaurants, and more. 

Graph Search is still in beta, so you have to sign up in Facebook to get on the waiting list to use it. 

But Facebook is throwing down the gauntlet to Google by using natural language queries to search by just asking the question in plain language like: “my friends that like Rocky” and up comes those smart ladies and gents. 

But Graph Search is not just a challenge to Google, but to other social media tools and recommendation engines like Yelp and Foursquare, and even LinkedIn, which is now widely used for corporate recruiting. 

Graph Search uses the Bing search engine and it’s secret sauce according to CNN is that is culls information from over 1 billion Facebook accounts, 24 billion photos, and 1 trillion connections–so there is an enormous and growing database to pull from. 

So while the average Facebook user has about 190 connections, some people have as many as 5,000 and like the now antiquated business card file or Rolodex, all the people in your social network can provide important opportunities to learn and share. And while in the aggregate six degrees of separation, none of us are too far removed from everyone else anyway, we can still only Graph Search people and content in our network.

Interestingly enough, while Facebook rolls out Graph Search to try to capitalize on its treasure trove personal data and seemingly infinite connections, Bloomberg BusinessWeek (10 January 2013) ran an article called “The Dunbar Number” about how the human brain can only handle up to “150 meaningful relationships.”

Whether hunter-gather clans, military units, corporate divisions, or an individual’s network of family, friends, and colleagues–our brain “has limits” and 150 is it when it comes to substantial real world or virtual relationships–our brains have to process all the facets involved in social interactions from working together against outside “predators” to guarding against “bullies and cheats” from within the network. 

According to Dunbar, digital technologies like the Internet and social media, while enabling people to grow their virtual Rolodex, does not really increase our social relationships in the real meaning of the word. 

So with Graph Search, while you can mine your network for great talent, interesting places to visit, or restaurants to eat at, you are still fundamentally interacting with your core 150 when it comes to sharing the joys and challenges of everyday life. 😉

(Source Photo: Andy Blumenthal)

Technology Forecast 2013

I am an avid follower of everything technology and trends, but am tired of hearing about cloud, mobile, and social computing.

It’s time to get over it with the agenda of the past and get on with it with the future of technology.

In the attached graph is my Technology Forecast 2013, and here is where I see us going forward:

1) Service Provision–Cost-cutting and consolidation into the cloud is a wonderful idea and it has had it’s time, but the future will follow consumer products, where one flavor does not fit all, and we need to have globalization with a local flavor to provide for distinct customer requirements and service differentiators, as well as classified, proprietary and private systems and information.

2) Service Delivery–Mobile is here and the iPhone is supreme, but the future belongs to those that deliver services not only to remote devices, but in wearable, implantable, and even human augmentation.

3) Human Interaction–Social computing epitomized by Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn, and many more is a cool way in interact with others virtually, but wall posts, email, and chats are getting cliche–next up conjoining with others with capabilities such as telepathic communication, mind melding collaboration, and even virtual sex for the outlandish.

4) Robotics and Artificial Intelligence–With something like 10,000 drones flying the friendly and not-so friendly skies and even drones that autonomously land on aircraft carriers, the next robot is coming to the ground near you–drones will become (an)droids and will eventually have the AI to become part of our everyday society.

5) Service Assurance–Enough playing defense with a sprinkling of offense against our worst enemies–it’s past time to move from trying to stop-gap infiltrators and do damage control once we’ve been robbed blind, and instead move to a hunter-killer mentality and capability–the price of being a bad boy on the Internet goes way up and happens in realtime.

6) Data Analytics–Big data isn’t a solution, it’s the problem. The solution is not snapshot pretty graphics, but realtime augmented reality–where data is ingrained in everything and transparent realtime–and this becomes part of our moment-by-moment decision processes.

7) Biotechnology–Biometrics sounds real cool–and you get a free palm reading at the same time, but the real game changer here is not reading people’s bio signatures, but in creating new ones–with not only medical cures, but also new bio-technological capabilities.

8) Nanotechnology–Still emerging, quantum mechanics is helping us delve into the mysteries of the universe, with applications for new and advanced materials, but the new buzzword will be nano-dust, where atomic and molecular building blocks can be used on-the-fly to build anything, be anywhere, and then recycled into the next use.

Overall, I see us moving from mass produced, point-to-point solutions to more integrated end-to-end solutions that fit individual needs–whether through continued combinations of hardware, software, and services, man-machine interfaces/integration, and building blocks that can be shaped and reused again and again.

From my perspective, there a seeming lull in innovation, but the next big leap is around the corner.

(Source Graphic: Andy Blumenthal)

Online Presence, Your Calling Card

In the age when Facebook has surpassed 800 million users, I still often hear people say that they don’t like to join social networks or put any information about themselves on the Internet.

Whether or not their apprehensions about their privacy being compromised is justified or whether they feel that “it’s simply a waste of time” or that they “just don’t get it,” the impetus for us to all establish and nurture our online presence is getting more important than ever.

In the competition for the best jobs, schools, even mates, and other opportunities, our online credentials are becoming key.

We’ve heard previously about jobs checking candidates backgrounds on the Internet and even bypassing candidates or even firing employees for their activities online.

Numerous examples of people badmouthing their companies or bosses have been profiled in the media and even some politicians have been forced out of office–remember “Weinergate” not too long ago?

Now, not only can negative activities online get you in trouble, but positive presence and contributions can get you ahead.

The Wall Street Journal (24 January 2012) reports in an article titled No More Resumes, Say Some Firmsthat companies are not only checking up on people online, but they are actually asking “applicants to send links representing their web presence” in lieu of resumes altogether.

What are they looking for:

– Twitter Accounts
– Blogs
– Short Videos
– Online Surveys/Challenges

The idea is that you can learn a lot more about someone–how they think and what they are like–from their history online, then from a resume snapshot.

Of course, many companies still rely on the resume to screen applicants, but even then LinkedIn with over 135 million members is sometimes the first stop for recruiters looking for applicants.

Is everything you do and say online appropriate or “fair game” for people screening or is this going over some sacred line that says that we all have professional lives and personal lives and what we do “when we’re off the clock” (as long as your not breaking any laws or doing something unethical) is no one’s darn business.

The problem is that when you post something online–publicly–for the world to see, can you really blame someone for looking?

In the end, we have to be responsible for what we disclose about ourselves and demonstrate prudence, maturity, respect, and diplomacy, perhaps that itself is a valid area for others to take into account when they are making judgments about us.

When it comes to children–parents-beware; the Internet has a long memory and Facebook now has a “timeline”, so don’t assume everyone will be as understanding or forgiving for “letting kids be kids.”

One last thought, even if we are responsible online, what happens when others such as hackers, identity thieves, slanderers, those with grudges, and others–mess with your online identity–can you ever really be secure?

Being online is no longer an option, but it is certainly a double-edged sword.

(Source Photo: here; Image credit to L Hollis Photography)

Vizualize Yourself

I tried out this new visual resume online called Vizualize Me.

 

It is currently in beta, but it connects up with LinkedIn and pulls your profile, work experience, education, skills, and recommendations right from there.

 

You can edit the data in Vizualize Me and even name you URL–I named mine Andy Blumenthal.

 

There are also multiple themes for showing your information–although, I liked the default one the best.

 

And you can edit colors, fonts, and backgrounds, but I didn’t go that far with it today.

 

The only problem with the program that I had with it was when I tried to refresh the visual resume after making some updates to LinkedIn, it got locked up.

 

While the program is still a little kludgy, I like the infographics used for this visual resume and I think it quickly and easily captures a person’s professional and educational background.

 

Hope you like it too!

>Mapping Our Social Future

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I came across this interesting Social Network Map (Credit: Flowtown).

We are all part of and participants in social networking, and are genuinely hooked on it.

(Even going so far as the guy who was tweeting about his Continental flight plane crash in Denver in 2008.)

But sometimes it is hard to figure out what is going with all the social networking tools out there.

Hence, I find this 2010 map a very interesting visualization that sort of sums it all up.

The social lands are sized by number of users–hence Facebook looking like the goliath out there with 500 million users (now up to 600 million already!) surrounded on either side by Friendster and Twitter (with approximately 115 million users each).

Beneath Facebook are the “Volcanic Islands of iPhone Apps” (and add to that the Android Apps)–and with their explosive growth these are truly volcanic.

On top, you have the land of defunct social networks like a bunch of fallen Yahoo properties, along with the “Receding Glaciers of AOL and Windows Live” as well as the “Former Kingdom of MySpace”–together these are essentially the equivalent of the Siberia of the social map.

On the bottom, you have the “Empire of Google” (sounds a little foreboding with a ring of Darth Vader to it) plus there is what was then the up and comer, the “Rising Island of Google Buzz”.

Near the “Sea of Desperation” is Match.com–that’s funny.

Then there is a pretty sizable Island for YouTube with the “YouTube Triangle of Viral Videos”–plenty of those and now they are competing with the Networks and Cable.

And on the Right is LinkedIn for professional networking and a whole “United Territories of Wikipedia”–hey, the Encyclopedia of the web deserves it!

There are many more familiar sites like Digg, Flikr, and don’t forget Blogger— a personal favorite. 🙂

The Strait of Bing is another one that is apropos since search is still Google pretty much all the way.

Finally, in the center under Facebook is the “Sea of Personal Information“–something we should all be concerned about; our privacy is important and shouldn’t be overlooked, even as we open up and share of ourselves more publicly than ever before.

There really is something about a picture being worth a thousand words–I like the Map and how it portrays this activity and I am interested in seeing how this evolves as well as in how this might be applied to other social issues including everything from alternative energy to the spread of democracy and human rights.

>Implicit Requirements and Enterprise Architecture

>With electonic contact lists in Microsoft Outlook on the computer and on organizer programs on cellphones and other electronic gizmos, why would anyone still keep a physical Rolodex anymore?

The Wall Street Journal, 24-25 November 2007, reports that “some executives are still spinning their rotary card files…more than 20 years after the digital revolution that forecasted the paperless office, the ‘rotary card file’–best known by the market-leading brand name Rolodex–continues to turn.”

The article continues, “as millions of social-network users display their connectedness on their Facebook pages, a surprisingly robust group of people maintain their networks on small white cards. Most of these devotees also rely on BlackBerrys and other computer-based address books.”

This infatuation with physical Rolodex files extends to models like the 6000-card wheel that are no longer even on the market. Other executives keep as many as 8 or 9 Rolodex wheels on their much needed desk space. Why?

The article states that “part of the card system’s appeal has always been that it displays the size of one’s business network for the world to see.” Yet, social-networking sites like LinkedIn also display the number of contacts a person has, so what’s the difference from a physical Rolodex file–what need is the technology not fulfilling with users?

From a User-centric EA perspective, it seems that people have a fundamental need with their contacts to not only be able to maintain them in an organized fashion and to demonstrate the size of their network (to show their value to the organization), but also to feel important and accomplished and to be able “to wear” this like a mark or medal of distinction, in this case by laying it out their Rolodex files prominently on their desks for all to behold.

In EA, when we design technology solutions, we need to keep in mind that there are functional requirements like the organizing of personal and professional contacts, but there are also human, psychological requirements that may never actually come out in a JAD session. These are unstated or implicit requirements and architects need to plan technology to meet both the explicit and implicit needs of users.

A little like Sherlock Holmes and a little bit like a psychologist, an architect must explore user needs beyond the surface if they are to successfully align new technologies with end-user and organizational requirements.