Targeting Israel: A Distraction From Real Threats

Please see my new article in The Times of Israel called, “Targeting Israel: A Distraction From Real Threats.”

While the world unfortunately focuses again on Israel (a state the size of New Jersey), they continue to unfortunately be asleep at the wheel when Russia invaded Crimea and annexed it from a sovereign country of Ukraine in 2014, and again now in 2020 as China is taking critical steps that restrict freedom and human rights in Hong Kong.

The question is why we are constantly being diverted to blame and attack Israel and to not look at the real threats to world peace? Yet again, it’s another modern-day blood libel! While the superpowers play Risk with the world order, we should not be fooled by others trying to tell Israel what to do. Nothing should stop Israel from annexing the 30% of the West Bank under the Middle East Peace Plan that is vital to their lasting peace and security. Today is July 4th and the U.S. and Israel stand united in their commitment to that future.

(Credit Graphic: Andy Blumenthal)

The Coronavirus Stock Market

I believe this photo best summarizes where we are with the Coronavirus stock market.

As they say:

Don’t count your chicken before they hatch.

This market has gotten way ahead of itself and the pending economic realities of the Coronavirus and the consequences of the trillions of response fund debt. 

Remember:

– The virus does not yet have a vaccine, and it is mutating and may become even more virulent!

– The deaths continue to soar in the U.S. with now over 75,000 dead in just two months.

– The deaths involve much pain and suffering both for the victim and his/her grieving loved ones. 

– The unemployment is at all time highs since the Great Depression. 

– Companies are starting to move from temporary layoffs to permanent firings and contraction, and many eventually to bankruptcy. 

– Profitability and gross domestic product are way down and may be even worse in the next quarter.

– Price Earning ratios are around their 10-year highs even looking out toward a possible 2021 recovery. 

– Restarting the economy does not mean a return to what was as the extreme trauma from the pandemic, shutdown, and social distancing rebalance us to a “new normal.”

– A second and third wave of Coronavirus may be as bad or even worse than the first. 

– The two biggest global economies of the U.S. and China are facing a deteriorating and toxic relationship.

– The lingering $3,000,000,000,000 that we just added to our National Debt is going to increasingly strangle our future economic outlook. 

– The election is in November and brings increasing instability and likely volatility. 

In summary, the term used by former Fed Chairman, Alan Greenspan of “irrational exuberance” seems like a gross understatement when it comes to our current stock market.  

Get ready to see the froth come painfully off this drunken market–these eggs are about ready to crack.  😉

(Credit Photo: Andy Blumenthal)

Simpsons Predicted Coronavirus

It’s incredible that the Simpsons’ creators predicted Coronavirus back in 1993!

I understand that the sign in the first photo (top left) was edited from Osaka Flu to Corona Virus.

But still incredibly…

The Chinese workers are seen coughing/sneezing into the box of goods being exported to us.

Simpson opens his new bought goodies.

And instead of the joy of shopping, he gets sick.

And the virus spreads and spreads. 

(Source photo: Dailymail and you can watch the Youtube video there as well)

Amazon + Teva = A Marriage Made In Heaven

Amazon has upended so many industries–and you can basically buy almost anything there.

And yes, what you can’t buy today, you will be able to buy tomorrow. 

What started as books and DVDs is now virtually synonymous with e-Commerce itself!

Next up for Amazon is pharmaceuticals!

Some people may think that Whole Foods gives Amazon the footprint it needs to sell these and dominate.

But what people aren’t considering is that Amazon can sell the pharmaceuticals online.

Amazon can do what other online drug distributors can’t.

Why?

Because Amazon has the most unbelievable distribution network in the world. 

Currently, people can order drugs through the mail, but these tend to be for regular reoccurring prescriptions that have lead time. 

However, Amazon can outdo these mail order pharma companies, because they can get you the drugs you need when and where you need it. 

– You don’t feel well and can’t make it to CVS, Amazon will deliver to your door. 

– Need same-day delivery, no problem. 

– Plus do all your shopping together in one fell timesaving swoop. 

My prediction: 

Amazon the low cost, efficient online seller of everything to everywhere is going to partner with Teva Pharmaceuticals, the #1 world leader in low cost generic drugs.

Teva already produces 120 billion tablets and capsules every year, operates in 80 countries, and currently fills 1 in 6 generic prescriptions in the U.S. 

Together, Amazon and Teva can make beautiful music, that is medicine + money!

Who needs CVS when pharmaceuticals perhaps soon can be gotten at Whole Foods or at your Trusty Amazon.com.  

One more time, I see some radical disruption–and this time it will bring you cheaper and more convenient drugs–make a l’chaim to your health. 😉

(Source Graphic: Andy Blumenthal)

(Endnote: I am a big fan + investor in Teva, and of course, all opinions here are my own.)

The Pundits Know Sh*t

If you haven’t seen any of the many videos flying around about everyone who said “Trump will never be president,” then you should.

Presumably, these were people in the know–senior politicians and statesmen, experts galore including scientists and professors, news media, talk show hosts, comedians, and Hollywood stars.

Virtually none could even imagine him winning as they “promised” and “guaranteed” it and even swore they would leave the country otherwise.

But as we all now know, they were completely wrong and misguided. 

Similarly, in a book review today in the Wall Street Journal of “Public Intellectuals,” the big mouth know-it-alls out there or what my friend’s father used to call “intellectual idiots” failed to predict all the black swan events.

From the fall of the Soviet Union to 9/11, the Internet bubble and recession of 2001 to the mortgage meltdown and financial collapse of 2008, from the Arab Spring to Brexit…the pundits are all left looking like schmendricks!

Whether this is caused by personal biases, shortsightedness, herd mentality, or incompetence, the educated intellectuals just don’t seem to be able to see around that next bend anymore than the rest of us. 

Moreover, because of their walled-off elite status, they are functioning and talking through loud speakers from their ivory towers rather than from the real man’s world of everyday hardships and challenges. 

As I often tell one of my esteemed colleagues, it’s not how often or how loud you say something, but how sincere it is. 

The pundits typically miss it (although they seem so smart when talking with 20-20 hindsight about what happened and why), and as contrarians already know, it typically pays to do the opposite of what the so-called experts tell you. 😉

(Source Photo: Andy Blumenthal)

Nothing Is Something AND Something Is Nothing

So the world financial markets continue to go haywire. 

The Uber glorified taxi service and app (with an almost half billion dollar operating loss) is now valued at–get this–over $50,000,000,000!

And commodities–you know the precious materials that REAL things are made off (gold, silver, copper, aluminum, oil, gas, coal, wheat, cotton, corn, soybeans, cotton, cocoa, coffee, sugar, beef, and more) hit a 13 year low. 

When the nothings of this world like a basic cab service become invaluable and the real things that power our homes, technology, transportation, and manufacturing become valueless–then we know a day of painful financial reckoning is coming. 

The markets can stand on their head for only so long before the blood rushes in and people become dizzy and see spots.

A reversion to the mean is the one something here that is inevitable, along with a pretty decent recession to boot. 😉

(Source Photos: Andy Blumenthal)

When Incremental Improvement isn’t Enough

One of the things that I love about the Intelligence Community (IC) is that they think future and they think big.

Noah Schactman in Wired Magazine (12 December 12–great date!), gave a snapshot view of 2030 as provided by the National Intelligence Council (NIC).

Some of the predictions (or aspirations) include:

– Bioprinting such as creating 3-D printed organs (how’s that for your orchestrating your own organ transplant?)

– Retinal implants for night vision thermal imaging, seeing the distance without binoculars, or even one-upping Google Glass by providing augmented reality in your eye instead of over it

– Brain chips for superhuman thought and recall (those without remain doomed to brain farts, in comparison)

– Bioweapons where DNA is used to target and take out people by genetically engineering viruses to attack them, specifically, without leaving any markers

– People embedded in machines–reminiscent of when Ripley in the movie Alien enters in an exoskelton robotic suit to kick some Alien butt!

Other predictions include: megacities, climate change, big data clouds, aging populations, and more drones.

While some of these advances are incremental in nature–for example genetic engineering and bioweapons are incremental steps from DNA sequencing of humans.

However, other leaps are more dramatic.

An article by Stephen Levy in Wired (17 January 2013) discusses how Larry Page (one of the Google founders) strives for inventions that are magnitudes of “10x” (often actually 100x) better than the status quo, rather than just 10% improvements.

Google has many examples of leaping ahead of the competition: from its transformative search engine which has become synonymous with search itself to Gmail which came out with 100x the storage of its competitors, Translations for the entire web from/to any language, Google Fiber with broadband at 100x faster than industry speeds prototyped in Kansas City, Google Books providing a scanned and searchable archive of our global collection of books and magazines, Google+ for social media (this one, I see as just a Facebook copycat–to get on Facebook’s nerves!), Google Maps for getting around, Android their open platform operating system for mobile devices, and even self-driving cars–many of these are developed by Google X–their secret skunk work lab.

I really like Google’s concept of going for the “moon shot” rather than just tweaking technology to try and stay ahead of the competition, temporarily.

And as in space, there is so much territory to explore, Google believes it is attacking just .1% of the opportunities out there, and that the tech industry as a whole is attacking maybe 1% in aggregate–that leaves 99% or plenty of opportunity for all innovators and inventors out there.

To get to 2030 and beyond–we’re just at the tip of the innovation iceberg! 😉